rachel ([info]rachelmap) wrote in [info]2004_elections,

Zogby says he smells a rat.

...The first signs of the rat were identified by Kathy Dopp, who conducted a simple analysis of voter registrations by party in Florida and compared them to presidential vote results. Basically she multiplied the total votes cast in a county by the percentage of voters registered Republican: this gave an expected Republican vote. She then compared this to the actual result.

Her analysis is startling. Certain counties voted for Bush far in excess of what one would expect based on the share of Republican registrations in that county. They key phrase is "certain counties"--there is extraordinary variance between individual counties. Most counties fall more or less in line with what one would expect based on the share of Republican registrations, but some differ wildly.

How to explain this incredible variance? Dopp found one over-riding factor: whether the county used electronic touch-screen voting, or paper ballots which were optically scanned into a computer. All of those with touch-screen voting had results relatively in line with her expected results, while all of those with extreme variance were in counties with optical scanning...


http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10398

Check it out and see if you think his analysis holds up or not.

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[info]flavobean

November 15 2004, 16:03:54 UTC 7 years ago

I love conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, but...

Ms. Dopp forgot to compare the way these counties voted in 2000 and 2002.

The trend was the exactly the same.

Most people attribute this to the prescence of blue-dog Democrats, who have voted Republican since the 60s and 70s.

[info]chipuni

November 15 2004, 19:13:09 UTC 7 years ago

Please note where that article is on Zogby's site. It's in the section which contains media mentions of Zogby; it is not condoned by Zogby.
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